TNT Monday

TNT Call notes 2-Mar-2015
Tony:  Good morning, TNT!  Today is Monday, March 2, 2015.  If you don’t have a question or comment, hit *2 and put your hand down.  Thank you.  DC, I sent out a tweet you will really have to explain to everyone.  “The call is on time and so is Iraq.” They are on time, whether people want to believe it or not. 
This is why I do what I do:  we believe in our intel and communications, and we believe that people involved in the situation, in Iraq, involved in the situation, tell us.  WE don’t care about article put out two months ago.  Do your own research, but if I put out a tweet saying someone paid 400 dinar as they cross the border, it’s because that’s what someone on the ground just did – 400 dinar, not dollars.  Do your research!
DC:  Iraq got up to the plate on Saturday night, lined up and ready to go, and they had a meeting about the RV, taxes, customs rules and enforcement ready to go on 1. March.  They agreed to keep the tariffs and customs rules in place, and not to restart the auctions, but to hold off on the public side of the RV. They are holding off on who can exchange in Iraq for a few days.  For those who don’t care about the details, that is the news, and you can turn off and go back to sleep.
Everyone is waiting on Iraq.  Everyone is prepped and ready for the tariffs and they are going forward as expected.  We got that information from someone driving a truck over the border, and also from those enforcing those tariffs and fees. The tariffs are in place throughout the country.  The auctions didn’t take place because they have enough ffor the money.  They finished paying Kurdistan, not to pay the police and military and salaries.  They decided several things in that Saturday meeting, and we have some confirmation on one of them.  Abadi and his Council of Ministers decided that it would be better to take back a part of Iraq, Tikrit?  The bankers didn’t think that was part of the mix.  That might take weeks or even a few months.  They have been fighting and been successful to an extent.  We do not believe that they will wait until Tikrit is taken back, they just want a major success to look good before moving forward so they can roll it forward in a big celebration.  One of the strategies is to use the revaluation to soften up the troops.  ISIL is paying $190 per month plus food, so this will soften up some places in Anbar and Mosul.  So this is part of the military tactics;  we don’t talk about that here because everyone is listening to this call, including Baghdad.
That got wrapped into this situation on Saturday night.  We don’t know if today’s success was enough. They are playing this by ear.  They don’t need to have the entire town be re-taken, they just need some wins on the board.  That was not part of the equation until Saturday night.
Tony:  That’s it.  Everything has been completed.  IN the US everything is done. The military did get paid at the new revalued rate, all the way back to January.  The Iraqi citizens know that, and they are waiting to get their own checks and cash. All the merchants know it as well. They didn’t want to do this as the initiative started in Tikrit, on the day they started taking back the city.  It will be easier later in the week or month. It’s just like when ISIL walked in, it will be easier when they have a win. Iraq has done every little thing with the banking laws and tariffs;  they are on time, but they didn’t want to do it on the day they walked into Tikrit.  It’s their money, country and history;  they don’t want to have a celebration in one part of the country when they are sending in 30,000 troops into another party of the country.  I’m feeling great and waiting for this to go.
DC:  I’m a bit frustrated – why did this get mixed in at the last minute?  When I calmed down, you realize that these things in Iraq are important to them.  This does block them into a corner where this absolutely has to take place, between the auctions, banks, tariffs and all.   It will happen when Dr Shabibi gets comfortable.  We may have to wait a few days, maybe four days.
Tony:  They are telling their people, and this will happen.
562 caller:  You would have thought that the RV would help calm all this down…?
DC:  The RV is absolutely part of their military plan. They want to announce it at the end of the military action, not the beginning.  The soldiers want to go shopping as well!  They don’t want to shock everyone on the first day;  once you get all the soldiers engaged in the fight, then it will soften up the enemy to announce the RV.  You can then have the money to celebrate afterwards.
Tony:  ISIL pays their soldiers 150-190 per month.  After the RV, they can pay them more than ISIL… maybe 500 per month.  ISIL is losing oil wells, cities, territory.  Iraq will pay them more, and that is better.  Do they announce it before or after they put their lives in danger?  I see the reasoning behind it, and I see the effect it will have.  By the way, my wife lets me have multiple wives, but only because Pam lives in Michigan!
313 caller:  I have a similar questions, but now I will change the whole subject and pull your chain a little bit, Tony.  A guy back in January said that it won’t happen in February or March, and here we are in March! 
Tony:  I could say it won’t happen in May!
Caller:  You and DC are both vital for us to get this information out of Iraq.  [Appreciation]
Tony:  I’ll tell you a joke quickly:  All these guys went to heaven, and there was a long line saying “Stand over here if your wife tells you what to do” and another line “Stand here if your wife doesn’t tell you what to do”. There are a lot of guys in the first line and one in the second line. What is his secret?  His wife told him to stand in that line!  The whole time that caller was talking, Pam is sending me texts to say this or that…
February, January, last November and December – honestly, I can’t make this stuff up.  I tell you what is going on in the moment according to the information they tell us, and we see the guards and bankers going in, that is what we tell you in the moment. It could happen in January and February.  I think it is about to happen because the tariffs and taxes went into effect and the military got paid back to January yesterday, at the new dinar rate. That’s what they told them yesterday.  I think it is going to happen really soon.  Maybe what they are doing in Tikrit is a total massacre, and they decide not to release it, but everything they are saying is that this is it, it should have been last night, and it could be tonight.  When they decide they have done enough over there, this will happen, and we can go.
DC:  I agree.  People say “Oh, it didn’t happen today, so it will be another two weeks” but that is not how it works.  This is a daily decision, pushing and pulling, maybe this extra bit would be a good idea.  It’s not a giant plan to frustrate us for the last 15 months, it’s a daily back and forth.  This last one was a recommendation to Abadi that they are starting to fight in Tikrit, and maybe it would be a good idea to have a victory or good news.  They didn’t want to stop the tariffs and laws, they had enough to pay their soldiers, so… they didn’t have a lot of press, just bad news about ISIL, and they had some maneuvering room.  They are prepared with their procedures and such, and by dealing with the terrorists, they are now in a wonderful spot.  Nothing else needs to be done, and with the auctions, they can go at any time.
828 caller:  [Appreciation]  With the rates, are we still on the zim dropping six zeroes, and then 5-6 cents, in the first basket?
DC:  That is what they are planning so far, dropping six zeroes and then rates up to 22 cents, although I’d be surprised if it is that high. 
Caller:  What about the dong?
DC: If it does come out as low as 8 cents, I will exchange some, buy more dong, and wait for it to rise.  I don’t know the time line on that – it could be a few weeks or it could be five years. 
Caller:  You said the Iraqis are waiting for the right time.  That’s a tough one.  There will never be a perfect time because there is always something going on.
Tony:  It will never be perfect, so they will choose the time with the best advantage for them.  They have to live with that forevermore, because there is no going back.  It’s done forever.  The taxes and tariffs are already in effect, and they have paid their military for the last two months.  The people are now waiting to go to the bank.
DC: Some banks are open, some are not. Some are training. They are not always open all the time like a normal business. They are getting the same off and on behavior like we are;  they are highly frustrated as we are, and the Iraqi people are losing patience as this goes on.  Intelligence folks are warning their people they are playing with fire.  They are telling the Iraqis to get it done, then everyone will be happy.  It could take weeks! However, I strongly believe this will not wait until they fully retake the city.  I think it will be enough for them to get a few points up on the board.  They have the tariffs and taxes in place, and we are being told by people in the room that they just need a few days. What if something goes bad?  By doing these other things, they are forced to RV within a short period of time. They are running out of cash, and it doesn’t work to have these different currency rates and levels all at the same time.
904 caller:  [Appreciation]  It’s been mentioned a few times that they are trying to clear out these large bills. Is there any chance that the people who don’t’ want us to have this will leave us hanging, that we cannot exchange these large bills?
DC:  It’s a very faint possibility.  Those who have exchanged, especially since 30. October or with SKRs, if they were able to exchange and make a ton of money and the rest of us cannot, that will cause all sorts of troubles.  I think that is insurance on that. All the major banks are ready to go through and this is a massive stimulus for the economy. The five million in this are an essential part of the plan to stimulate the economy and the oil credits.  We are part of the plan, just the last to get off the bus. Many get worked up about this, and because this is wildly speculative investment, it invites a lot of conspiracy-minded people.  But we are part of the plan and we are going to be paid.
Tony:  A lot of older people say, “Don’t borrow trouble”.  A lot of your are worrying about things that we have already got past. Instead of being anxious about what could go wrong, get ready for what will go right. Everything is done, and this is about to get real.  The numbers are there – the money is at the bank, the people are there, Iraq is there.
Caller:  Maybe it was just that little dark corner in there.  Things have changed so much in the last few months about which banks will be handling the exchanges… this is my scenario.  If you didn’t have a relationship with a bank or a wealth manager, if you are just with a credit union, then what about the contract rates?  Will there be 800 numbers or will we call the individual banks directly?  No bank seems to be acknowledging contract numbers.  Which bank would you go to if you have to go it quickly, as the contract rates will not last long?
DC: I would make an appointment with the big four banks.  If you follow this call, you will get the news first;  get on the phone and make an appointment with all the big four.  Only a few thousand will do that, so talk to all four and see if you can get the contract rate.  The main banks are all saying they will beat the prime contract, so put them to the test.  Do some comparison shopping. All the tier 1 banks should have access to the contract rate;  we are told by two of them that they will offer that, and even the tier 2 systems may have it as well.  All the major banks have already exchange people at contract rates all across the country already.
Caller:  Will they all be offering the same rate?  What is the best thing to ask for?
DC:  I will ask “I want to exchange dinar;  do you have the contract rates available?  What are they?”  Just like shopping for a financial advisor, the more homework you do, the better rates you will get. 
707 caller:  Where can I get information about using 770 accounts?
Tony: Were you on the last call??
DC: I don’t have that information.
Tony:  I don’t either; it’s not my deal.  Go to a financial adviser, Google, etc.
Caller:  There was a redneck from Paris, TX.  He was in a hardware store and spotted a shiny object.   What’s that, he asks.  The salesman says that it’s a thermos, and it keeps hot things hot, and cold things cold. He buys one, and the next day his neighbor says, What’s that?  He says it’s a thermos, and it keeps hot things hot, and cold things cold. What does he have in it?  His lunch:  chili and a popsicle.
202 caller:  What about rupiah?  What is the rate and the code?
Tony:  I don’t know.  When you go to the bank, tell them what you have.  Ask to see the screen.  I am getting texts even on this call saying the banks will be competitive.  I think it’s a stupid way to do it, but if that is how they are doing it, take advantage of that!
702 caller:  So should we ask for IQD or IQN to be exchanged?
DC:  Some banks are using IQD and some are using IQN.  That is not a major issue.  The only thing you really have to be worried about is using the word ‘exchange’.  Bring in your currency and receipts, and say you want to exchange for US dollars.  I don’t think they will nit-pick on the code;  the main issue is to say ‘exchange’ rather than ‘cashing out’.  “I want to exchange my currency” is what you want to say.
Caller:  So they want this battle to succeed a bit, and that could take forever, right?
DC:  In effect, with these tariff and tax laws at the new rates, they have blocked themselves into getting this done in a very short time.  Also, with the auctions having stopped, they don’t have a lot of cash in hand, so they will have to change the rate.
Caller:  I said to my husband that just when they think this is under control there will be a problem with ISIL.  Also, I heard that the soldiers will be upset because they are not being paid at the new rate… did I hear that right?  How long can the Iraqi government keep this going before they have to RV?
DC:  No.  ISIL is the guys who will be upset.  Some are part of ISIL for religions or ideological reasons, but most are doing this for the check and the glory. If the Iraqi government can pay them more, they will back away.  Iraq has received loans from China and the US;  they are willing to make loans because of cheap oil and other considerations.  They are willing to keep Iraq in the game.
Caller: I have things about to blow up here – everything is coming to a head – so I hope Iraq does this soon!  There are so many people I want to help.
918 caller:  [Appreciation]  Are there exchange centers in Tulsa?  There are no WF banks in Oklahoma at all.
Tony:  You might have to look through tumbleweeds to even find a bank in OK!  I was there and one of my best friends is from Oklahoma.
DC:  All the major banks in OK are linked in to the WF/Bank of Ireland system.
Caller:  Question about the zim… you talked about caps on the contract rates for the dinar and dong, and then on one call you mentioned a possible cap on the zim.  But they don’t have a contract rate, so…
DC: They have a cap on the contract rates to make that pool available to a wider range of people.  Then Tony opened his big mouth about the zim, and they thought “Oh, no, it’s the zim all over again!”  They don’t want a few rich people to make a gazillion dollars off the zim, so they are working out how to limit that.  Some are suggesting 22 cents for the first amount, then one cent for the rest.  They are still considering it, and so far as I know they still haven’t worked that out yet.
Caller:  As long as there is some sort of value and it’s not just a collectible.  Someone also said something about the zim not being exchangeable at the banks, that we might have to go to investment firms…
DC:  We know a number of folks who have exchanged their zim at the banks.
Tony: We have banks showing rates for ZWR, ZWN and even ZWN.  I don’t’ think that will be an issue at all.
Caller:  On the calls, everyone said only the 50 and 100 trillion zim, 2008 series AA, so that is what I bought.  Then I got given some other notes.  I then did some research and found those 50 trill and 100 trill notes are the ZWR codes;  does that mean that the others will not be valid?
Tony:  Nothing beats a failure but a try. Take them to the bank and see.  I do believe that the ZWR only applies to the 50 trill and 100 trill zim notes.
570 caller:  I gather that we will not get an 800 number but individual bank numbers?
DC:  As we have said many times now, each bank will have their own 800 number.  You will be offered an exchange depending on the individual criteria on who to exchange.  They were going to have one 800 number, but some banks said they didn’t want the general public, that they had enough business.
Caller:  Do we give the list of all that we have?  And will X, Y and Z have exchangers?
DC:  I would, to give them a picture of how much you have.  You will be treated a lot better the more you have. It’s not right, I know, but that is the way of the world.  And all towns over 100,000 will have exchange centers, especially the big four and tier 1 banks.  If you have any over the really tiny banks, you will do just fine.
650 caller:  How can this offensive become a stopping point?  Who does that make sense to?  When is enough, enough?  Why is Tikrit so important that it can stop this?  And if so, how did we miss this?
DC: They have kept the intel and military side out of this as much as possible.  They always had the RV in mind to soften up the opposition as much as possible, and they have briefed the defense and interior departments and the CBI on that all along.  The ‘good idea fairy’ brought this up again on Saturday and suggested this to Abadi. They always planned to use this afterwards, especially in Mosul.  Dr Abadi is naturally a very strong consensus builder, and at times that can be immensely frustrating when the leader is sensitive.  The US and other friendly embassies are planning for this to go through later on this week.  If Tikrit turns into a route and the IDF get nailed, yes, that will cause issues.  It came out of left field, it sucks, and that is where we’re at.
Tony:  It doesn’t make sense to us, and it we don’t have all the information.  A lot of the things Iraq, the US and the banks do don’t make sense to us, but there it is.
DC:  In the last few months, they all want to make sure this is absolutely perfect, and that brings up a lot of issues.  They want to show that the Iraqi defense forces can beat ISIL forces, and that is a big deal.  I wasn’t in the meeting, and I don’t get it;  it’s crappy news and we just have to deal with it.
Tony:  This is about to happen.  If I want everyone to have confidence in this change, wouldn’t it make some kind of sense to send in our own forces, without international help, and show what we can move them out of a major city.  Others want to discredit that, but really, it’s their choice.  It’s not about us.
Caller:  I do understand that.  But they could have started that offensive a week ago and then hit the RV this weekend.  If this has been on the map for a while, then it was never going to happen this weekend.  WE haven’t heard anything about the rest of the budget.
Tony:  Nobody ever said this was necessary.  They have published the budget, set the tariffs, taxes and paid their people.  It’s just something to give people more confidence.
Caller:  So it looks like they have done an internal RI.  They are still being paid in dollars for their oil.  It feels like this has nothing to do with an actual RV for the rest of the world.
Tony:  They are doing a whole lot of things that are effective on 1. March, including banking and authorization to exchange currency rates effective yesterday;  that is public and in writing. There are reasons that they haven’t finished it.  It is as done as it could be apart from a public announcement to the world.
Caller:  [same points again]  It doesn’t seem like it’s international yet.
Tony:  Their bank people and our bank people agree about it.  We’ll just have to wait until 3pm this afternoon and see.  They are saying, “let’s get one day of this in and then we get move on.” They want some success and then they can celebrate. There is nothing else to wait for.  The banking and all the rest is done, and they are not going to publish those other 17 sections until we don’t need to see them any longer.
Caller:  This feels like US putting their hand in again…
DC:  Dr Abadi has meetings with the Council, the Federation and representatives from all the major countries involved in Iraq, as well as military leaders.  That is how he has chosen to lead, and that is prone to influence from various directions.  They wanted to kick butt in Tikrit, and therefore the RV needs to wait for a few days while Abadi shows that he can be an effective Commander in Chief against ISIL.  Given that scenario, Abadi chose to do it this way.  Mosul and Tikrit have been brought up in meetings all the time, and they have been dismissed in the past as not crucial to the RV.  The US did assist in the conversation, but I doubt they orchestrated this.  They gave a nuanced answer to a straight-forward question and this is what Abadi decided to go with.
951 caller:  You talked earlier about the zim;  I am still confused. Why can’t we have one zim, not these four zims. I don’t know which one to use when we go in… Also, can we get a sample package we can look over beforehand?
DC:  I’m going to bring in my currency and say, “I want to exchange these”.  I don’t think they want to trip us up, apart from listening for that work ‘exchange’.  I intend to say as little as possible so that I don’t step in anything.
Tony: We haven’t got the package yet!  It keeps changing!  We hoped to have a bank representative on the information calls, but their lawyers advised against that.
DC: I have to go  I know this is not the news you wanted, but this is another step towards this being done.  This is very positive deal.  They were absolutely ready to go Saturday night.  They could and should have done it then.  Watch the news and see what develops. Watch the boards and hopefully we will see this very soon.
Pam:  The transcribers will love this shorter call.  It’s springtime in Michigan;  even thought there is snow on the ground, the sun is shining.  I know that many will be frustrated with this information, but don’t poop in our punchbowl.  Keep your hair on and we can have an intelligent conversation about it all.
Ray:  Continue to enjoy marvelous Monday. OpenMIke is not Rehab Room either!  It will be good;  just hold on.
Tony:  Thanks the Mods and everyone else. I got a text during the call saying “Why aren’t you more upbeat?  The rest of Dinarland is saying this is going any second!”  I do believe there is a plan for this to go out this week.  I want you to understand why it didn’t happen this weekend.  Rates were changed, and they are on screens all around the world;  they paid the military, raised the rates, tariffs and taxes, and Iraq likes to do things in stages, so look for that.  You should be happy and excited.  Everyone tells us it it is done, done, done, all completed and signed off. We are just waiting for a flip of the switch.  I hoped to wake up to it, hope to go to sleep to it or failing that wake up to it tomorrow.  When something happens, we will send out a tweet.  Instead of wondering why it didn’t happen or what’s next, it’s a better use of your time to prepare for when it does happen.  Have a great day.  I hope to talk to you later today or tomorrow, and if not, then on Wednesday.

— Edited by Adept1 on Monday 2nd of March 2015 11:47:12 AM

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