TNT Monday

T – TONY | DC = DC GUY | C = CALLER | NOTE: ONLY INTEL-RELATED INFO AND Q&A WILL BE TRANSCRIBED.

TONY – Good afternoon, TNT. It’s Monday, Sept. 15, 2014. We never expected to be here, especially on Friday. I wanted this to be a totally different call. But we have up to date info as to what occurred this morning. And we have both east and west to bring us up to date. Let’s go from Friday. It was a great, great weekend.

DC – On Friday the CBI and everybody put in written form and phone calls, as well as personally with banks in the ME that they’re not waiting for any political moves. They repeated that again then went silent from Friday afternoon on to a lot of folks. Meanwhile, the TV shows there were incredibly detailed with instructions on how to exchange, check your prices when you buy things now, make sure you pay the right price, etc. This has been going on since Thursday on TV, radio and internet. We have many confirmations of that this morning. They’re scrolling banners about the economic reforms.

DC – The everyday Iraqi is highly worried this is another “screw you” moment by the GOI. It’s starting to cause issues since they prepped everybody for celebrations on Friday. They’re feeling frustrated and jaded now. This is causing complications with fighting with ISIS.

T – On Friday we had a time-frame and everybody in the world thought it would be right before Forex closed. CBI went quiet on Friday and didn’t come back until last night. They went in detail on TV about the exchange procedures, etc. and that’s what they’ve been doing for the last 4 days. Plus, on Saturday morning they announced in the mosques that “today is the day all Iraqis have been waiting for.” They took this as a pre-announcement.

DC – So you can imagine they are very frustrated because they’re still seeing very detailed instructions on TV, radio, etc. and finance ministers are coming on giving instructions, saying it’s really, really close. Needless to say, the celebrations did not occur. But Parliament did meet on Sunday and formally seated the Interior and Defense Ministers. These were not necessarily needed but nice to have.

T – Abadi is doing this to show an all-inclusive GOI. They did a formal vote and signed off on economic reforms, and announced it was sent to the Gazette for publication. All this happened on Sunday night.

DC – Right. Abadi continues to do a good job. On the streets everybody is frustrated and comparing him to Maliki (because of the delays). They’re highly worried and concerned. ISIS is still an issue and this isn’t the type of frustration they need to be dealing with..

T – They’re seeing this on TV everyday, publicly announcing they’re not waiting on the US approval on anything. Yet, they’re getting these people overly-excited for the 5th or 6th time. It’s a dangerous play because they don’t know how they will react when it actually does happen. It could explode at any moment and they say “you’re no different from Maliki.”

DC – Everybody is aware of that. Intelligence and Law Enforcement guys are putting the pressure on them to get this done. The CBI came back and said on Sunday night that they know this is serious even tho they hadn’t heard back from them since Friday night. So, CBI came back Sunday night and said “let’s get ramped back up.” Across the world the banks got ready because CBI specifically said they’re not waiting on anything political.

DC – Tensions are rising. Bankers had many meetings yesterday and mid-level and high-level guys got dragged in on Sunday. They are quite ready. Law enforcement did the same thing, as did Intelligence Agencies. Everybody got ready and CBI reminded them they will not wait on anything.

T – Thursday night the same thing happened – bankers were called in. Security meetings were held Friday morning in preparation for weekend exchanges. Then CBI went dark. Then everybody went home until Sunday when they were called to get ready again after yesterday’s events.

DC – Across the world there were some exchanges used primarily as tests. Everything worked. In terms of us waiting on a specific event, I personally do not know of any. But everyone of my folks tend to believe we are just waiting on the CBI. They’ve given no guidelines or windows and nations are trying to influence the CBI on them. The USA and UK are trying to influence those windows, but respectfully they remind them it’s the CBI’s decision.

T – We know the rate has gone as far down as the teller level. And it’s not $1.09. That was BS going around over the weekend. The other thing is you (DC) were very generous with the “test” statement. We can talk about exchange procedures today, what-if scenarios, etc. while we’re just waiting for the CBI. You can ask DC about the next phase and what he would do.

T – I also want to talk about “3D-Printing” and the great opportunity it will present. Over the weekend we saw the 1st automobile made with 3-D Printing that goes up to 40 mph. It may be where the future is.

C – Are we in Plan A or B?

DC – We are not in either A nor B. Plan A was to keep the US honest, to put it in Iraq’s hands. Because of some diplomacy by the US, Iraq was told to get their Parliament completed and they used this to do some cleanup. Our understanding is that was done last Monday and then some folks in town a week ago created some issues and they had to clean those up as well. So that gave more time (24-48 hours). That’s when the CBI stepped in and decided it’s their time to call and they aren’t waiting on anybody. That’s when they started running the TV ads. It’s very much in Iraq’s hands and has been since August 28.

C – Are there any hindrances you see that could blind-side us?

DC – Honestly, no. There are some crazy things and people who want to make issues but at this point no one is listening to them. Due to ISIS issues they have been flatly rejected. I don’t see a realist option other than begging and pleading on their part to delay it.

T – They’ve been talking to their people about exchange procedures for 4-5 days now and it’s probably because of the different languages. They were giving examples of the price changes and adjustments. They are holding it back for what reason we do not know. Could they be saying one thing and something else is happening in the back? Yes.

DC – The pricing issue is causing a good deal of problems now because a lot of merchants started changing their prices when the ads starting running. That’s causing problems.

NOTE: TNT House-keeping issues related to their Mods will not be transcribed.

C – I guess I need to go back and read “Creature from Jekyll Island” again after this weekend. I read over the weekend the US and UK were holding things up. I feel like I took 3 steps backwards this weekend.

T – Let’s say the CBI has all the power right now. Everybody, including the USA, has signed off on everything. Even the IMF/BIS has signed off. Let’s say the US, UK, China, whoever, says “we know you have the power because we gave it to you and that’s what your people want to see.” But in the back room, they say “let me sweeten this deal up to wait until Friday.” So what they were doing up front is now being done behind closed doors.

T – How long will it last? We don’t know. But a brand new government is telling their people it’s done yet nothing is happening. That’s bad for the fight against ISIS, with 1/3 of the country occupied. You can’t un-light a match and the longer it lasts the more out of control it becomes.

DC – What are we waiting on? We really don’t know. We know we’re waiting for the CBI to trigger it. They’re playing some pretty serious poker with some guys who play way. But it’s not something to drag out longer. The fact it didn’t go on Saturday really pissed some people off. Diplomats are ticked off and don’t want this. The CBI, even last night, came back out reminding everybody they’re in control, but we already know that. Frankly we’re having a hard time figuring out what they’re trying to say.

*They’re playing some pretty serious poker with some guys who play really well.

C – What are the plans for the rupiah?

DC / T – I don’t know.

C – Iraq has been such a puppet for the USA for a long time. Now they say “you have to wait on us” and reminding us they are a sovereign state. Sounds like they want to stick it to us a little. That pressure might be a powder keg.

T – I firmly believe they are not trying to stick it to us. They want it to look like a confident new capable GOI. It’s okay to delay it for a short period of time, but they can only do that for so long for so many times. That’s the danger we’re looking at and we know they’re playing with fire right now. They’ve been telling their people to get ready, but what are they waiting for?

C – With Iraq having the power to push the button, how does it make sense that we can “test” or exchange?

DC – We’re being generous with that phrase “testing the system”. They are doing some exchanges now basically as tests, or under the guise as being tests. Are there a ton of them? No. China and others are honoring their contracts. That’s fine as long as it gets done quickly. The point is they are representing it as something that is working great. We know it’s working very well. Once they start pushing some boundaries then we have another situation on our hands.

C – Are those “tests” being exchanged at int’l rates or contract rates?

DC – I do not know the exact rates.

C – Is Iraq sovereign 100% in the world’s eyes and are they full members in the WTO?

T – I believe they are sovereign but they are relying on the USA as a partner.

DC – WTO ascension is a process they are in the midst of. They have been a member of the WTO and now they are fixing aspects to regain that membership. We will find out about all the ascension things after the fact.

C – Are we still supposed to refer to them as “IQN” and “VND”?

T – Yes.

C – Is there a contract rate for the VND and if so is there something we need to do to get it?

T – I’m hearing the contract rate won’t be available for the general public but they will have to make it available just to avoid the hellfire that will come afterwards.

C – Okie said he knew weeks ago this wouldn’t happen before 9/15. Have you or DC heard this as well?

T – A week ago some people said that. Others have said the 20th. But that doesn’t take away from what we’re hearing. And that doesn’t take away from the broadcasts, memos, world leaders showing up for celebrations, calling in bankers, security, etc. for something that won’t happen for another 10-20 days? That doesn’t make sense.

C – Have there been any updates about Admiral’s Group exchanging before the rest of us? Tariffs or taxes on the exchange?

DC – Are the groups going in front? Our understanding is that, as an organizing principle, they already have a group with all the docs and info they need. So if I was going to start something, I’d go first with the organized group before the general public. The groups are only ready to be processed in certain locations. If you’re behind one of those groups it may slow things down a bit.

DC – Yes, I’ve read those docs and there is a tariff/treaty deal in there and they can change their minds. The code name is under 1031 Tax Code. For example, if I sell property I can exchange it into another property to defer the tax liability on your balance sheet. Am I doing that? No. The rates have changed a great deal. The Admiral’s Group is well-organized. My understanding is they’ve had some issues in the past with people trying to change things. But the tax rate is in the docs as a tariff they will treat as a life-time exchange. Not sure if that will make it thru the IRS. I’m not a tax attorney.

DC – There are some groups it will be a nightmare to be part of. I haven’t studied all of them, but some stuff does not smell right at all.

C – In your opinion, do you think Abadi might take the offer from the USA to delay until November or beyond?

T – First of all, they made an offer and it was declined already. They (not the US), might be slow-rolling him to get somethings approved, etc. to get little things done one at a time. If I need 60 days, I’m not asking for 60 days. I’m asking for 3 days, 10 days, etc. at a time. The mistake in all of this is the fact that he’s advertised it to his people for 5 days in a row and the last time they did this there were riots in the streets. They’re playing with fire.

DC – It’s a legitimate concern. My opinion is NO because Abadi has been asked several times, he has listened to their arguments respectfully, and said it was this type of thing that got Maliki in trouble. He knows what happened to calm everybody down last August (2013). He knows his people have a great expectation of him. Iraqis have been disappointed for so long it could backfire. This could blow up in all our faces bigger than you could imagine. The whole world is reading between the lines and knows they can’t ask for anything more.

DC – I’ve got both Repub and Dem friends. I have a nice long convo with a Dem this morning who said they (the Dems) need this RV so badly. They are looking at the mid-terms. POTUS has the lowest ratings ever. Core constituency is eroding massively (singles, Latinos, etc.), they are losing support in a major way. Can POTUS fund-raise? Yes, but he’s facing a wall. The immigration delay really hurt them. The economic stuff still will not look good to the general public. Even after POTUS’ speech, they came back and told him it didn’t budge the polls on the ME situation. All the Dems are saying “give us this damn thing now” so they can get their core supporters excited again. They are saying they need this money NOW and not to wait for elections. Is there still a person who wants to delay until January? Yes. But why did the Boss (POTUS) sign off on it in August? Why did Abadi say “no thank-you?” Why are they refusing to take the US’s phone calls? Why are they running ads? Because they believe this is getting done NOW.

C – Has it RV’d in other countries?

DC – There have been “onesie’s and twosies” here and there because some got the memo from the CBI and moved ahead in the last 6 days. I do not doubt some exchanged.

T – You have to remember this was scheduled for Friday evening. And Saturday morning they made a pre-announcement in the mosques. Some jumped the gun. There aren’t lines of people.

C – If this doesn’t happen in the next few days, what’s your opinion will happen?

T – They’re playing with fire. Rates are changing throughout the region with prices being adjusted already. If it takes too long it will piss people off.

DC – Remember, you’re dealing with a bunch of Sunnis. You keep poking them with a stick they get PO’d. And remember, ISIS is paying these people and they’re going to go where they get paid

C – If the bank person won’t let you look at the monitor, what would you do to look at the contract rate?

DC – If they’re not going to be that honest with you then leave and go to another bank. What I understand is the banks are highly motivated to get you the highest rate possible because they get a 2% spread of what they give you.

C – Someone said the NDA mentions it being an “investment” instead of “currency exchange.” If that happens what do we do? Can we cross if off and write it in?

DC – I’m not an attorney. The verbiage addresses the tax liability. We’re just going to be cattle going thru a chute. They want us in, 20 minutes in and out. The bankers are worried about 5-6 million people.

T – Today would be a good day to get that legal advice. Don’t wait until you’re at the table.

C – At the initial exchange can we request a cashier’s check to pay bills?

DC – The 1st appointment is to get you in and out for the exchange. After that appointment, you can go back and get cashier’s checks.

T – Remember, it may take 24 hours before they’ll allow you to draw on the deposit.

DC – And don’t mix the funds until the tax laws are settled. There may be an issue about co-mingled funds.

C – Would you buy dong right now if you could and hold it until a later date?

T – Yes, I would. I’m not telling anyone to buy anything you can’t afford.

DC – We are not financial advisers but that’s one I would buy. And I would not hold it – get the highest rate possible and get out.

C – When I go in for my initial appointment and the contract rate is no longer available, and they offer the int’l rate, how do I get another appointment if we only get one appointment from the 800#s?

T – I would go to my appointment and if they don’t have the rate I want, I would go back to the exchangers (dealers) and watch their rates online. If you don’t have the ability to watch it go up and down, don’t do that. It’s much like an IPO – it will cycle up and down. Sterling, for example, will lock you in and then let you change the rate (per Frank). That’s you’re real security blanket right there.

C – But if I haven’t purchased from Sterling will they do business with me?

T – He said he’ll do business with people who do business with him. But you can try.

C – Is the int’l rate fixed or does it become a market rate?

T – The market rate will be on Forex and Sterling will pay market rate.

C – But if I haven’t purchased from Sterling will they do business with me?

T – He said he’ll do business with people who do business with him. But you can try.

C – Is the int’l rate fixed or does it become a market rate?

T – The market rate will be on Forex and Sterling will pay market rate.

C – What was that rate you said was at the teller screens?

T – It was over $3. It could’ve been $4 but I’m telling you it was over $3.

C – Will the rates be published online?

DC – They’re trying to avoid that. They’re going to offer you A, B or C. Pick one. One reason we wanted to help you is because there will be lots of questions about taxes, capital gains, etc. We are continually pushing for an educational campaign to help alleviate those problems and anxiety. Everyone will be confused and there will be issues. So we hope that somebody will have an educational plan for those going thru the process.

C – My questions involve Plan A or Plan B. Plan A was a full revaluation in a period of time with Plan B where someone outside the USA was to take control of it and it would be a lot more messy. Is that off the table now?

T – The squeaky wheel gets the grease. Before it was a different administration with a different goal. Iraq had the power and authority to hold it off before ISIS came about and now that issue affects everyone. On the surface they are saying “right now” but they have had 5 days to do it. So either they are in charge and are just stringing their people along, or they’re not in control like they say they are.

DC – Our understanding is that they can choose to pull the trigger when they want to and that’s why they haven’t gone back to Plan B, unless the US forces them the issue and nails them to the wall.

C – So, let’s get to Iraq. If the CBI is in control that concerns me. The worse thing I could see happen is the one who was in charge got moved out and a new guy put in.

DC – I had no confidence in Maliki whatsoever. He consistently lied, so the US told him he was not the one to let it happen. The POTUS went on TV many times to say that Iraq needed to be stable and we would support a stable GOI. Abadi is highly motivated to get it done. The world is not going to put up with another Maliki who plays games with his own people. I like the fact they are still running the ads and programs on TV, promising his people he would do it. And then you have ISIS fully funded in your house. You don’t have a lot of options. They need the money. And remember, other countries are involved in this around the world. China needs Iraq extremely bad. They have a huge demand they can’t meet. The rest of the world is invested. ISIS is beheading people from around the world. Then your own ME partners are concerned ISIS is killing and raping their citizens. So, they have to do something and if it’s not an RV they better come up with a good excuse.

T – Abadi could be saying I already told the whole world, “I can give you a bit of time, but NOT a lot of time, its NOT that I don’t want to help you, but I CAN’T You cannot get mad at me, the public is waiting!”

C – I’m more concerned with the CBI delaying this, not Abadi, when we saw private exchanges, F&F, etc. It sounds like certain people got paid off.

DC – The new guy can be replaced and he knows it. He may be able to arrange a nice place in Dubai or Seychelles, but it’ll only be for a few days. T – The fact they brought him in doesn’t mean anything because it was already decided before he got there. There has to be something else going on in the backroom. He is limited in the backroom. But I think it’s still all good.

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T (to DC) – How long can he keep the infomercials going without backing it up, knowing everything has to be in the Gazette by Wednesday?

DC – Much past Wednesday there will be major issues. But even if they turn off the infomercials, the people are not idiots. They will remember what they heard. It would be another nail in the coffin and that’s the general opinion of people in the streets and all the guys I talked to.

DC (to Tony) – What’s you gut feeling how this will play out?

T – Past this week it will be a problem It’s real serious when you’re in the mosque at 5:30AM telling them it’s happening. They not only lose credibility but they will be giving power back to the people in the streets. I don’t think they want to leave the opportunity open to strike that match. I think they are smarter than that.

RECAP: DC – For 4-5 days it’s been on TV this is going any moment. They prepped everybody for celebrations that didn’t happen. Prices are changing throughout the ME now. CBI clearly stated many times it’s up to them and to stay ready. They said that again last night to the banks worldwide. Everyone in Iraq is ready.

T – Everything is good. We have from several sources that Parliament met and finalized everything including the final 2 ministers and the economic reforms. They said we should see this no later than Wednesday, when it will be in the Gazette by then. Hopefully Wednesday’s call will be a better call. Enjoy the rest of your day.

END OF CALL.

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