UU1012 – “Re-positioning Iraq for Wealth” by Mnt Goat

Hi Everyone,

Today’s news letter is a long one. Sorry but there is so much confusion now and people are anxious and wondering where is the RV. So I have to take some time now to explain to you what is going on.

I hope everyone also read my last news letter dated 01/28 and 01/30 since this is a continuation of this ongoing saga and this news letter will then make more sense to you.

Today’s News

Today is Monday Feb 2nd and still no RV. Very, very interesting articles coming out of Iraq now in the aftermath of last week’s historical passing of the 2015 Budget Law.
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One article in particular I thought I would share with you and should be explained in detail since it is telling so much on when they intend to open and spend parts of their budget.

We all should know by now that when they do begin to spend the 2015 budget they will need to fund it somehow. They will have to have an international currency to meet their international obligations. There is no way around it.

Perceptions/Speculation

If they open this budget and do not have the funding to meet it (liquidity) they will be insolvent. This will not go over too well with the international community since there are international obligations within the budget they needed to fulfill. They will lose credibility.

In the face of what they are confronting with the money needed to fight ISIS and all the bad publicity about the corruption of Maliki, (the 800+ billion of missing funds) and how they are trying to create a safe haven for investors and tourists to come into Iraq, I sincerely do not believe they will want to be looked at as an insolvent country. I do not believe this will happen.

In fact in my mind I fully believe this funding must come very soon. I believe they have already provided for some of these funds, as I described in my last couple news letters. I will not explain this again and I rely on you to go read them.

We see yet more articles too on this topic coming out such as the needed international tie-in for the Mastercard. Did you read this one? I sensed a frustration in that one.

There is also the ATM machines where they can not use the 3 zero notes. These machines have been purchased as a great cost to modernize Iraq years ago however they can only be used when the lower denominations are issued (such as when the purchasing power of their currency increases significantly).

Kuwait too has decided to postpone future war reparation payments as they make backdoor deals to get this owed money on other terms.

Can they ratify the budget and then just sit on it?

Yes they certainly can do this. They have done this with countless other laws already. This has been a huge problem all along for anyone trying to figure out this process. It is the not as straight forward as we would like it to be. But remember also we are not in the Maliki administration anymore.

Things are now different and moving along. There is a whole “package” of laws they are sitting on.

They are all related and interconnected with the implementation of the budget law and so we can expect them all to be released about the same timeframe. Something for all of us to watch for in the Iraqi news. Could it be other laws still need a fine-tuning?

Does placing the budget in the Gazette (their law library) automatically cause it to be implemented?

Technically the answer to this question is – YES. This is how it is supposed to work. However they have already taken many laws in the past and posted them in the Gazette only to implement them months later.

So there is no guarantee they will not now do this with the 2015 budget law if they get stalled in implementing the revaluing process of their currency. I am not saying they are going to do this but I am saying it is a possibility.

If we do not see some re-pricing of the dinar very soon – like this week sometime we know the CBI is having issues with establishing the value they need for the currency and they will not revalue until the economy of Iraq is re-positioned to do so.

I explain all this in much more detail under the topic of “future value of the IQD” section of this news letter. What explain what I mean by “re-positioned” or “re-positioning”.

But first let’s look at the current news about the 2015 budget saga because this event is driven by the target timeline (or deadline) of this re-positioning to be completed as you will see.

Current News Article

It was announced by the parliamentary Finance Committee member Ola Nashi that the 2015 budget was sent to the presidency on Sunday for ratification as required. The president of Iraq now has 30 days to approve the bill or voice his objections to parliament.

Nashi also added in a statement to the press that the process of sending the law to the presidency and ratified take one month only. So he confirmed the process for us.

Nashi also commented that it would be announced in the Official Gazette and rendering it to online sites for the citizens to view.

Now here is the interesting part of her news blast. She also explained that money to allocated to the ministries of justice, agriculture, trade, and for Intelligence and National Security will begin as of the first of the next month of March. The allocations for the Ministry of Education will begin starting from September of this year.

What does this mean to us. This tells us where they are in the process of finalizing the budget. Technically president Masoum could take till the end of February to ratify it and they could be in a holding pattern for any re-pricing of their currency until this timeframe.

Nashi does say in fact that the allocations for certain ministries would not begin until March.

This tells that even if Masoum does speedily ratify the budget they are not in a position to open it and begin spending it for these ministries until this time.

I believe she is making this news conference to satisfy the citizens and to let them know when the funding is to be applied. sort of settling the crowds since they have been promised these reforms for so long.

But what about all the other ministries like the interior ministry? There are huge sums allocated for items related to this ministry. Here we see is where all the reconstruction projects are and the money for the National Guard efforts. We know these security forces have been without pay now for over a month.

They are now threatening to walk off the job if not paid. Can they wait until March? Nashi is not saying they would since she does not talk about when the allocations for this ministry would be spent.
$$$ Future Value of the IQD $$$

This is one of the most misunderstood issues in these dinar intel forums. I see how these so called dinar “gurus” have messed with your minds and totally confused many on this topic. Many of these gurus have no business preaching news about this currency revaluation since they really know very little.

So let me explain and clarify this topic for you. I hope this will help you. However it is a long read and my explanation takes time to understand but it is well worth the long read. So please settle back and relax. Get a cup of coffee and your reading glasses. Maybe even print it out and take it to the toilet with you….lol…..

Remember the CBI can not just arbitrarily just say their currency is worth a new value. THEY MUST CREATE THE VALUE FIRST !

So what does it mean to CREATE VALUE to a currency? For the sake of argument let’s say Iraq did arbitrarily come out with a $3.58 rate. Can they sustain this rate long term?

Many of you are now saying – Of course they can! Do you say this just because you heard about all the oil reserves they have? Really? Think not! Let me explain.

You probably answered this question only from what these “gurus” have been telling you and not from the facts of where the re-pricing process currently is. Re-pricing process?

Yes – there is a plan and this is why everyone keeps saying there is so much for the CBI to do to set up for the revaluation. However it is really not so much the CBI as it is the GOI doing all the ground work.

We see this everyday with the new laws and the unification process. This is all related the positioning of Iraq for a new phase in its history.

Abadi and his team along with the parliament and the workforce here. The CBI is just the brains of this re-positioning effort.

So how to find the value of this $3.58 rate I would first ask this question – What did they “peg” it to? There must be a standard currency used to gauge the new value. The US dollar index is the most widely used and it is widely used in pricing for trade between nations.

You see this international trade is very important. They will need to peg it to something since any rate is arbitrary until substantiated. Trade revenue is what brings in wealth from other nations.

The game is simple- you (meaning other international countries) have wealth and we (Iraq) would like to have it. If we are successful in our trade policies we can provide goods and services to you and you provide us with a stream of revenue. If Iraq manages these new revenues appropriately (prevent corruption) they can become a very wealthy nation.

Contrary to many who believe that Iraq is already wealthy let me say this.

Wealth is real money in the bank or a legally substantiated potential for wealth. Iraq will not be “wealthy” until they can figure out how to milk their trading partners and do it so their trade balance is normalized with higher net revenues (cost of net exports exceeds cost of net imports).

I am no economist but this was all clearly explained to me as to how the CBI plans to create value to their new currency. This value must be realized prior to any revaluation.

So listen carefully to these next paragraphs as to how they intend to do this. All these laws you have been reading about are not for nothing.

They all move this country in a direction towards increased “future” wealth. It is more than just reinstating the IQD such as what they did in Kuwait and I think this is leading many to confusion. The effort in Iraq is monumental in what they are doing in comparison.
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We should all be glad too since Iraq will then be able to sustain long term growth. I can’t wait for the huge spike in value too once the investors home in.

Personally I am taking 10% of my IQD and putting it aside to exchange later on this spike in value. I am going to be patient and wait. This is my plan not any advisement. Back to the news….lol…

Next I would look as a host of variables that substantiate the increased value, i.e. how much oil, gold and other minerals. There have been many articles in this area so we know they have the wealth in the ground as with their great oil reserves. But also I would look at the exports.

What exports does Iraq currently have? Yes oil is an export but it does no good if kept in the ground. It is not an export if in the ground. Wealth is measured at realized revenue stream or a legalized potential for wealth. This is in part what brings up the value of your currency.

So oil reserves discovered in the ground is great but alone is not true wealth. Having a legalized plan (pumping so many barrels per year to market) is a projected export.

But still how do you guarantee this extraction and the bringing of it to market s you can include this value into your currency valuation equation? (especially when you know the tribes do not get along in Iraq. The Kurds own all the oil and the Sheites and Sunnis need it).

They must establish legal pumping requirements to let investors know what they intend to take out of the ground on a scheduled basis. If this becomes law then they can substantiate this future wealth.

Get how it works? Thus you can now see the need for the HCL law and why it was so important? Why they needed this law to establish any real future and present value from this oil commodity?

We have read many articles from the WTO and the IMF too already stating that Iraq must diversify its exports such as in agriculture and other products for trade. What did they mean by this? Let me give you a few examples.

We also know they have not one but two of the largest gold mines. What will they do with all this gold?

They will make it into products of course such marketable items as necklaces, watchbands, rings, etc..and then export them or sell them to tourists. Gold is also used in electronics and many other industrial processes.

Iraq also has the largest bauxite ore mine in the world. Did you know this? Do you know what bauxite is used for? It is to be exported as a raw mineral in the making of aircraft parts. It is used in the manufacturing of light weight, high strength aluminum skins and parts for aircraft.

So these are just some of their higher end exports. But again how do they get the bauxite ore to the barges to ship as an export? Again this is where the funding of the 2015 budget comes into play.

There is funding for infrastructure of roads and rail lines from the mines upto the ports for transportation. Are you now getting it?

So if they can substantiate and show how they can bring this bauxite ore to market then it becomes a REAL part of the value equation (of any revaluation formula) and not just ore sitting in the ground.

Many politicians are simple politicians and do not understand this. Dr, Shabibi knows it well and is coaching them well on this topic.

But what about the potential for a booming tourism trade? Don’t under rate the revenues from tourism. They can be substantial. But they will need security and a safe place to have fun and see the sites of the cradle of civilization and museums.

Thus the National Guard and other infrastructure funding is important such as the need for constant electricity, hospitals, good airports, transportation, shopping malls, hotels, roads, clean cities, etc,,.

This is in the budget too. Thus this effort to decentralize has a duel purpose.

Are you beginning now to see how it is all interconnected? The 2015 budget is to provide the funding for these efforts. You now see how it all pieces together nicely to begin to CREATE value to the Iraq dinar by legally obligating them to complete these projects by providing the funding.

See how Iraq is positioning itself to provide for this REAL future value in their currency. See how they must implement some of these simple laws we overlook as trivial but are important to any RV.

So to make a long story short we will never figure out just how they are re-pricing their currency and what formulas they are using since it is a kept secret. I can go on forever on this topic.

So please put this to rest. Stop guessing on what rate will come out. Take your time instead to study more of how they could increase the value by what they are doing in all these projects they have slated.

Study the new laws, the future infrastructure projects, exporting practices, tariffs and the timing to rolling them out. This is time better spent !

This will give you more of an indication of the RV timing than anything else. Please stop listening to these “guru” who are telling you everyday its going to RV just because their “contacts” tell them it will. They may be well intended but not factual.

How many of you readers work in the insurance industry? Would you give away your underwriting secrets and actuarial formulas to competitors? Of course not. This is your bread and butter.

If you were to know this information you could drastically alter and influence the marketable rates of your competitors. So it is the same with a countries currency rates.

You could theoretically influence an entire economy of a country and cause currency manipulations if you knew these secrets. You could make billions in currency trading and you could create havoc.

So my advice is just stop trying to figure out what the new rate of the dinar will be. It is way too complicated for us. We know the rate will be fair and that Dr Shabibi (now heading the CBI once again) wants it as high as needed to jump start their economy.

But first there must be these re-valuing items like I mentioned about put into place so he can substantiate the value prior to rolling it out.

He is relying on the GOI and parliament to do this for him. He is not in control of this area. He has had many meetings already with the GOI and head of parliament to establish is expectations in this area.

So we must look at what we know to be facts. This is all we can go by. The only facts we have is what they tell us in the articles, the news media and any contacts we might have in Iraq feeding us day-to-day information.
We can’t forget what was told to us in the past. We must remember and tie it in with what they now are doing. Everything has a purpose. Everything is for a reason.

The CBI did say they would be pegging the new value to a “basket of currencies”. What is in this basket is not yet officially known. We wait for them to announce it to us. This will be a huge sign to us that we are yet even closer to the revaluation.

I believe the Kuwait dinar and currencies of other neighboring countries will be included in this basket. This is my opinion. But remember this is only one or many factors used in the re-pricing.

Other facts that we know is that the CBI has begun the project to delete the zeros YEARS AGO and is completed with the project in-country. Nearly 80% of all the 3 zero notes have been recycled back to the banks and turned back into the CBI already. In return the CBI gave them USD.

This was in an article by the CBI not rumor but fact. So there are very little dinars left on the streets in Iraq. So where are they going to get this $119 trillion dinars from for the new budget funding? Did you wonder about this?

So the mainstream currency being used in Iraq is once again the US dollar since they turned in 80% of the 3 zero notes in exchange for USD. Now that they dollarized once again it is time to de-dollarize to complete the conversion process for the next step. You can’t just give out FREE money.

So the next step is to exchange the USD for the lower denom notes or coins ($1. $5, $10, $20, $50 bills). But here is the clincher. The CBI has told us in many articles that they are prohibiting the future use of the USD in international trade transactions and in-country commerce. So you now see why they did this.

They have not yet enforced this law. Just another one of those laws ratified and in the Gazette but not yet fully implemented, as I mentioned.

How can they do this until the lower denoms are fully distributed and the new currency value is announced. Do you see what I mean? There is so much interconnected in this revaluation process. It is truly almost all set up now.

So there you have it. You now know why it may or may not take a bit more time to “position” the country to a revaluing situation. If Iraq can not truly substantiate the value they need they will continue this re-positioning effort until the CBI is satisfied of the value needed.

It may take some more time or they be now be completed. Who truly knows- do you?

So bottom line – If no REAL substantiated value for an increase in rate then no RV will happen.

This process is spearheaded by the GOI with guidance from the CBI. The governor of the CBI knows this process well and is working closely with the GOI to complete this re-positioning process.

It will be completed soon. It simply has to. Since no one really knows just how far reaching this effort goes (we don’t have a checklist) we can only suppose that the RV could happen any day now but from what the recent articles are telling me it might be later than sooner meaning maybe another month.

Just my opinion from what I am now hearing and reading. Please don’t shoot the messenger ! I too find it hard to believe we must wait this long.

So you see Al-Abadi along with the CBI have to make a decision soon on when to RV this currency.

I believe this decision has already been made weeks ago and we are now in the final countdown window now that the budget is truly done. Can Iraq be fully positioned in increased value in time to open and begin spending this budget to meet this RV timeline?

Peace and Luv To Ya All, Mnt Goat

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