UU6806 – “ Is Iraq Now Ready For The RV?” by Mnt Goat

Hello Everyone,

Today I come to you once again to see what sense we can all make out of this RV saga of the Iraqi dinar.

I am sending out this news today since I believe it is a critical period we are now entering and all of you should be prepared for anything to happen in the very near future.

As I said previously this timeframe from mid September onward is a critical timeframe for Iraq and much is riding on them completing these economic reforms and other reforms on time. What is this timeframe for completion? Do they now have a good progress report? Is Iraq ready to pull the trigger on their currency reform?

I will try to answer many of these questions today.
~~~

Today’s News

Today is Tuesday September 15th and still no RV.

I want to begin today with an article from a news media meeting with Abadi. I really like this article because it is a general article about just where Iraq is economically and sums it all up where they are going. It verifies other news we had about the relationship between the 2015 budget, the price if oil and their economy.

I need also to remind you that the leaders of Iraq are new to having a democracy and a free and robust economy and need assistance in setting it up and regulating it.

Perhaps they are now ready? To what extent will they continue with the reforms before they finally agree to their new currency rollout? When will they be ready?

I have been saying not for two weeks, not a month but almost 6 months already that we should be looking at mid September as an excellent window of opportunity for the currency rollout of the lower denominations and a significant increase in the value of the dinar for Iraq.

Why did was I so firm on this timeframe when many other intel “gurus” kept trying to convince you it would go sooner than later. What did they know that I knew or better yet,  what did I know that they did not?

I talked about a mid June 2015 Paris Conference and how they met with the newly elected prime minister, the speaker of the house and the finance minister to discuss the progress of Iraq.

They discussed a possible 90 day time period from mid June to mid September for Iraq to get its laws in place and anything needed to support the new economy and to try to solve their deficit crisis. So it is mid September already and where are they now?

Currently they are in the process of the meeting to discuss progress made since June. So far there is no word on what they plan to do next since the meeting continues until September 17th  , (just 2 days from now).

I therefore do not expect any rollout of the new currency until at least after this date. But after this date we shall see the results and they will tell us what their next steps are.

But this is what we do know for sure – We know by the second article that I presented below is their reform plan and they are telling us it called for two phases. One they call “hot fixes” and the other “gradual reforms”.

.The question is – Do they need to achieve all the needed economic reforms of the country or just through the phase they called “hot fixes”, then later  implement the more “gradual reforms”  post RV?

Perhaps from the current meeting,  a follow up meeting from the June Paris Conference, they will ask for more time and refuse to go ahead with the currency rollout since they can also ask for an extension  in their timeframe  and then continue to push parliament to implement  more of the reforms beyond the  “hot fixes”.

I am hearing all the hot fixes are now in place so at least they have completed them.

They can also ask for more time to implement many of the planned “gradual reforms” and be refused by the IMF and WTO and thus they are forced to go ahead with the RV anyhow.

At this time we just don’t know which way they will go but we will know shortly.

This article below is an excellent bit of news. It is hopeful and very good news for us investors because it shows progress and a willingness to move even more forward.

I quote from this article – “the state is heading in the tunnels is reasonable and normal”, stressing that “we are fighting today even control the spending and oil imports is less than the salary that we need today and try to find a solution and we are keen on it.”

These are Abadi’s words not mine.

Here is a tid bit of information you may not know. The Customs and Tariffs alone have the potential to bring in revenue almost equal to oil revenues. Amazing is it not?

So now do you understand why they implemented the Customs and Tariff law so hastily all of a sudden once oil prices dropped?

Here is their words not mine-  “there are urgent steps to activate the taxes and customs in real time.”

But we all know that so far the tariffs have not been as successful as potential dictates.

Why?

THEY NEED BORDER CROSSING SECURITY and AN INTERNATIONAL  CURRENCY WITH A REALISTIC VALUE

So all of you who still believe Iraq will never be an economic giant and thus have a significant increase in the the value of their currency  soon-  think again!

So all of you who still believe Iraq will never have physical security and get rid of terrorism- think again!

So all of you who still believe Iraq will never play on the international level –  think again !

Article Begins:

ABADI: COUNTRY VENTURED BY SPENDING LESS OIL AND IMPORTS OF SALARIES THAT WE NEED

Alsumaria News / Baghdad – The prime minister single-Abadi, Monday, that the state ventured into spending, at a time between the current oil imports is less than the salaries needed by the country, he noted that state spending is heading unreasonably.

Ebadi said in a conference the start of the second workshop for the implementation of reforms for the advancement of the agricultural sector to hold, today, in Baghdadand attended by Alsumaria News, “The reforms at the beginning of the NGED have an impact in light of the large accumulations of state corruption and the loss of wealth”, adding that “state spending doubled abnormally” .

He added Abadi, that “the State ventured when increased spending after he had wrongly assumed that the production of Iraq’s crude oil will reach more than 8 million barrels per day and oil prices will escalate,” he said. “This assumption adventurer and can not be dealt with the community in this adventure, considering that this related to people’s lives. ”

Abadi pointed out that “the state is heading in the tunnels is reasonable and normal”, stressing that “we are fighting today even control the spending and oil imports is less than the salary that we need today and try to find a solution and we are keen on it.”

The drop in oil prices represents a big problem for Iraq, which relies on oil revenues, mainly as a source of income at a time when facing major internal challenges of Baktale with Daash organization and the need to save money for essential services, which suffers from a significant shortage.

Article Ends

Next I am including a very long article and it also tells us so much about  the pulse of the Iraqi parliament and what it is up to. Remember we need to have a level of these reform laws passed and implemented before any RV situation but just how far will they ask to go.

So we look for the needed laws in the session agenda and in article that prevail afterwards from the session. We are not mind readers and so article telling us about the aftermath is good. No “secret” sources of intel here….lol…..just the facts and no hype !

So let me point out a few of the goodies in this article from the session on Monday 9/14.

First they are telling us the session was attended by 212 deputies. This is really good since in the past under Maliki they were lucky to get attendance to 80 or 90 deputies.

Remember they can’t vote on a bill unless they have at least a quorum (51% or more members). They tend to get this high rate of attentions consistently now so this quorum requirements certainly does not appear to be an issue any longer.

Second the session has two themes – Internal Security and Reconstruction.

So much needed legislation. Do we need all of it to be completed prior to an RV? My opinion is NO. But there is key legislation that needs to be coordinated together with other bills. These are dependencies and inter connectiveness between what they are trying to do.

Many of these bills are also just amendments or changes to the wording of existing laws to better suite where Abadi needs to bring Iraq.

Remember much of the Internal Security will now be provided by the National Guard law once fully enacted so they must adjust these other laws prior to bringing that one to legal implementation and passage in parliament.

Third, the government talks about the objective of its formation, indicating that the link to legislation body should be to the interests of the Iraqi people and will contribute to the successful implementation of the needed laws.

Forth, the article points out that the spread of terrorism at home can be controlled and it can be done by addressing the problem of unemployment and correct education curriculum.

Article Begins

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VOTE ON THE BILLS AND FINISHED READING A DRAFT ANTI-TERRORISM LAW

Voice of the House of Representatives the usual twenty-second in its session held under the chairmanship of Dr. Salim al-Jubouri, President of the Council and in the presence of 212 deputy on Monday 09/14/2015, the bills ended with the second reading of two bills.

At the outset of the session, Mr. President al-Jubouri, the name of the Council condemn the threats that affect its members and the abuse of legislative authority and related work, demanding the Commander in Chief of the armed forces take the necessary steps to protect the members of the Board of any blackmail operation targeting their views actions.

The Council voted on a draft law to control the noise and submitted by the Committee on Health and the EnvironmentAs it causes noise pollution affects the environment and human health and to provide a clean environment and in order to maintain the integrity of the environment and public health and make it suitable for human life and other living organisms through the identification requirements to control the noise.

And allergic Council vote on a resolution to give priority to the Iraqi civil presses print in the school curriculum and submitted by the Legal Committee and forwarded to the Education Committee for study and finalize the law in line with the national interest.

On the other hand, the Council voted on the draft first amendment to the law sanctions the Internal Security Forces Law No. (14) for the year 2008 and submitted by the committees of defense and security, legal and which aims to reconsider the penalties provided for in the law.

Council to vote on the draft law of the board of the border crossing points and provided financial security and defense, services and reconstruction, legal, economic and investment committees to the next session.

This was followed by MP Abdul-Hadi al-Hakim, a proposal to resolve the housing crisis in the country, the central government called for and cooperation with the regions and provinces to allocate a piece of residential land per family do not have a dwelling place that divides the residential blocks of 100 m2 to 200 m2 to be distributed free of charge through the draw.

He called wise to set up a fund from the state and private companies and banks to finance the construction ancestor to be rewarding amounts are repaid over 25 years old and banking facilities.

In turn, Mr. President of the Council to refer the proposal to the face of the committees of services and financial reconstruction and to study it.

Mr. Jubouri as instructed for the Commission on Human Rights of the need to speed up the completion of freedom of expression and demonstration law and submit it to a vote.

It ended the second reading of the draft law public body was to monitor the allocation of federal revenues and submitted by the financial committees and the regions and governorates not organized in a region.

In the interventions, ladies and gentlemen MPs, MP Hassan Turan called to add oil to the Ministry of bodies and ministries mentioned in the draft law.

The MP Riad strange that the law will contribute to the achievement of justice in the distribution of revenue and solve the problems between the center and the region, calling for the formation of a limited and fixed panel of experts not to exceed five members representing the center and the provinces.

He urged the Attorney Jawad al-Bolani to give the private sector a chance to be among the circles the Authority to achieve partnership with the public sector and to achieve economic benefits.

He said MP Adnan al-Janabi said the federal system is based on the sharing of power and money, noting that the Constitution wanted the upper body was to monitor federal revenues to oversee the distribution of wealth to the center and the regions and provinces, adding that the intended experts are representatives of regions and provinces in the body.

He suggested MP Farhad can customize the Vice-Chairman of the Authority instead of one deputy and that the bill includes determining academic achievement for President or Vice President.
~~~

For its part, stressed the MP Zeinab Sahlani the importance of control of the center and the regions and provinces adjust revenues and the method of dispensing with compel the provinces to allocate funds to save the fiscal revenue.

The MP Zana happy make it clear that the Prime Minister absolute hand in the Authority through the appointment of representatives of the regions and provinces.

The MP Mehdi al-Hafez pointed out that the authority Atakhts mission control and the distribution of funds to the provinces with the importance of research in how to achieve the principle of justice and the nature of the association.

She called MP Najiba Najib to link the body was the House of Representatives instead of the Council of Ministers in order to achieve the purpose of its formation with the importance of taking into account the region where Tmthel

He noted the MP Hanan al that the law does not cover the need of legislation, despite its importance, pointing out that the draft law contains a mechanism declaration of transparency and the development of objective criteria for the distribution of imports to the provinces.

For his part, MP Yahya Ithawi that the law is important to see revenue and grants also contributes to the achievement of political stability through the distribution of resources to the provinces and territories.

He cautioned Rep. Salem Amuslimawi that link the Authority ordered the government to Aahakq objective of its formation, indicating that the link legislation to the interests of the Iraqi people will contribute to the successful implementation of laws.

In its response to the interventions committees they confirmed that the body was formed under the Constitution and can not give it a larger role than is the decree and its private Maitalq to form a fund for imports Federal especially now that its role is evident in the verification of distribution and to achieve transparency and fairness in the distribution of income, pointing to link the body was the House of Representatives

Thoudy approval, pointing out taking into account the views of the ladies and gentlemen of the House of Representatives fueling law proposals.

For his part, called on the First Deputy Speaker Sheikh Hamoudi relevant committees to take advantage of the BSA to take advantage of the concept of justice.

Sheikh Hamoudi pointed to the pursuit of the Council to form a special committee to conduct an interim parliament and strengthen the role of the House of Representatives.

Said First Deputy Speaker Sheikh Hamoudi through presided over the afternoon session about the possibility of the presence of Mr. Haider Abadi, head of the Council of Ministers to the Council on Wednesday as the date first, and at his request, pointing out that the interrogation of Mr. Khaled al-Obeidi, the defense minister will be in session on Thursday, the first of October after Eid al-Adha.

He explained that the Presidency of the Council of Representatives is not an executive, but representative of the Administration Council and the Presidency is ready to offer all business related to its work in case Saalha by any deputy,

stressing the right of any member of the Presidency of the travel and with respect to Mr. President of the Council, there are official trips personal and other, alluding that the visit of President al-Jubouri to Qatar and Iran were on his personal account Lama visit to Britain it was part of a delegation representing all the ingredients and a formal invitation.

The Council voted on a resolution that includes compel the federal government to issue the necessary instructions governmental and non-governmental bodies to block porn sites in order to preserve the public interest.

This was followed by the Committee of Religious Endowments and Religious Affairs issued a statement on the occasion of the anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Muhammad al-Jawad (AS), confirmed the that the Imam Jawad (AS) carry the concerns of Islam and his defense, calling for inspiration lessons and valuable lessons from the conduct of Ahl al-Bayt (AS) including unite the nation and raises would with Work on the face of satisfaction gangs that tarnished Islam.

Council and completed the second reading of the draft anti-terrorism law and submitted by the legal committees, security, defense and human rights.

In the interventions, ladies and gentlemen MPs, MP Mahmoud Reza pointed out that the ground spread terrorism at home and control is done by addressing the problem of unemployment and correct education curriculum.

MP Dhafer al-Ani identifying organizations that are classified as a terrorist and make them known at home and on the international and regional levels.

He noted the MP Abboud al-Issawi to the importance of the definition of terrorism funding sources and that the law includes sanctions against anyone who causes damage in transportation.

She said the MP flowers Turaihi that the law lacks a gradient in the application of punishments in line with the need to impose sanctions on those who provide misleading information.

For his part, MP Bakhtiyar Jabbar that many of the political, psychological and social problems because of terrorism, inquiring about the appropriateness of the imposition of the death penalty in many of the paragraphs of the draft law with the international public opinion.

MP Mohammed Naji urged the importance of tightening sanctions on terrorists in order to deter them and stop their crimes.

MP Haider cardioesophageal that the death sentence is not limited to those based terrorist organization, but includes the led.

The MP called Zainab visual coordination with international and regional bodies to bring the terrorists in the event of their escape, calling for the inclusion of media channels that promote terrorist speech within the anti-terrorism law.

For its part, he saw the deputy Najib Najib said the bill Eetmthel unification of legal texts claim to fight terrorism through the development of treatments and preventive measures and work to improve the living and economic conditions of the community to reduce youth belonging to terrorist groups.

He called MP Mutashar al-Samarrai to address the roots of terrorism and combat it through clear procedures.

And Rankin crossed the MP Abdullah surprised of attempts to ease the death penalties contained in the law.

In its response to the interventions of the Committee on confirmed taking into consideration the proposals and views, ladies and gentlemen MPs, noting that a lot of countries that Atqa out terrorist crimes as is the case with Iraq and set out in the laws of the provisions of the maximum, which is in the bill, noting that the loss of life unrelated to side living stressing that the law is keen to state sovereignty.

For his part, called on the Vice President of the Council, Mr. Iaram Sheikh Mohammed to take into account all the ladies and gentlemen of Representatives proposals, calling for the Committee on the treatment of overlap in the laws or other legal issues related to the organization.

As a student, first deputy to the President of the Council, Sheikh Hamoudi Committee to listen to the different views of the House and committees for the purpose of fueling the bill.

And then it decided to adjourn the meeting to next Wednesday 16/9/2015

The information department

Iraqi Council of Representatives

09/14/2015

Article Ends

Article Begins

PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE DESCRIBES THE STAGES OF THE REFORM OF THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMY: URGENT AND PROGRESSIVE TAXES AND CUTS

Special scales News

He said the parliamentary finance committee member Haitham al-Jubouri, Sunday, on the progress of the government and the Parliament towards achieving the economic reforms of the country through two phases “hotfix” and “gradual reform”.

Jubouri said L / scales News / “The government is taking major steps to reform the country’s economy as a whole,” stressing that “there are urgent steps to activate the taxes and customs in real time.”

“The step other of the second phase include a radical overhaul and gradually the sectors of agriculture, industry, trade and other assistance to the process of production in the country in order to rely on national products”, pointing out that “we are developing plans and programs and tools for activating those stages depending on the specialized expertise in the fields” .

It is said that “a member of the Presidium of the House of Representatives, Sheikh Hamoudi warned of” falling global oil prices, “stressing that” the country’s economy “endangered” that is not the private sector and investment support as well as opening windows to other alternatives such as agriculture, industry, tourism, and production and other resources, which has suffered a recession for a long time, “.

Article Ends

[Update: Fighting ISIS]

From everything I am hearing from Iraq ISIS is being contained but not defeated. But I believe that defeat is inevitable. For those of you who make comments that Iraq will never be free of terrorism and bombings I beg to differ with you. I believe that some day shortly Iraq will be safer than most major US cities.

You have to understand parts of Syria are safe havens for ISIS. Syria we know is also a threat to Iraq but this too is shortly coming to a conclusion either way, meaning it will remain a threat and be confined, or Assad will be replaced and a new government will be established.

The refugee problem too is not getting humanitarian attention around the globe as refugees pour out of Syria and spill into EU countries. Seems many EU countries can’t afford support for the coalition fighting ISIS but when it’s on your backdoor what do you then do?

Article Begins

US TROOPS RETURN TO IRAQ TO BATTLE ISLAMIC STATE — REPORT

160-strong force lands in Anbar, Asharq Al-Awsat says, to join campaign to push IS out of province’s capital Ramadi Aorce of 160 American army soldiers have landed in Iraq as part of ongoing efforts by a US-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State that has captured swathes of the country and its war-torn Syrian neighbor, the Arabic-language media outlet Asharq Al-Awsat said.

Iraqi security sources told the pan-Arab paper that the force landed at a military base in the Anbar province, from where Iraq is running its offensive against IS, Israel’s Walla news reported Saturday.

The base is already hosting hundreds of American Army personnel who are training the local forces, but this is the first time that a US fighting force has arrived in Anbar, the report said.

The soldiers are expected to take part in an operation to oust the Islamic State from Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, and some 70 miles (115 kilometers) west of Baghdad.

ISIS overran Ramadi in mid-May in a major setback for Iraqi forces, which had held out against militants in parts of the city for well over a year.

Coalition forces bombed a key jihadist command and supply hub in the Ramadi area last week. A video of the strike on a football stadium showed a massive secondary explosion at the site.

“The stadium was a key (ISIS) command and supply hub in the Ramadi region and was being used to store large amounts of homemade explosives, weapons and ammunition,” the coalition said in a statement.

“Destroying this hub will significantly disrupt (IS’s) ability to conduct operations and resupply their fighters in Ramadi.”

The group seized swaths of Iraqi territory in a June 2014 offensive, and coalition forces are carrying out daily air strikes against the jihadists to assist Iraqi forces, which have made little progress on the ground in recent weeks.

Article Ends

Article Begins

PARLIAMENTARY DEFENSE AND SECURITY MEMBER CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF US PRESSURES TO PASS THE LAW NATIONAL GUARD

RADIO NAWA   09/14/15   18:57

A member of the parliamentary committee on defense and security, Iskandar Witwit, Monday, the presence of US pressures to pass the law in its current form for the National Guard.

Witwit said in a statement, told (Information) that ‘there are US pressures exercised on the Iraqi Government to pass the Law on National Guard in its current form, which would be the beginning of the partitioning of Iraq’, excluding ‘passing the law in the present time because there are disagreements [which] had not yet been resolved’.

He explained that ‘ the question of impossibility of passing national guard due to the fact that the Ministry of Defense and of the Interior legal standing as an impediment to him and therefore has not been approved within the Iraqi Parliament.

He pointed out that, ‘ the Union’s claim that the National Guard is formed only of the provinces controlled by terrorist bands daash represents injustice right popular crowd forces offering sacrifices and martyrs in the battles against daash in those areas.

Article Ends

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All,    Mnt Goat

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