TNT – Friday

TNT Call notes 21-Nov-2014 – UPDATE ONLY

Tony: Good morning, TNT! Today is Friday, November 21, 2014. Unfortunately, I expected to be here today. This is what we are going to do. There have been a lot of rumors and there is a lot of updated information. So I’m going to ask everybody on the call to pay attention and get it right so there isn’t a lot of fear-mongering. We will give you stuff in great detail, so please don’t misinterpret and put it on the boards half-digested. Keep in mind that giving you the information may cause it to change. This may ease your anxiety but cause change just because we are telling you. East to west, then the plan.

DC: Iraq is extremely prepared, have run through all their checklists. They are ready to go and double-checked with training and all fifty issues brought to their attention on Sunday have now been dealt with. They are absolutely prepared and notified everyone, and everyone agrees including the USA.

In Parliament, the Budgets have been done and they will announce the adjustments to Erbil, HCL and the Kurds. The amnesty law has been completed and is now ready – that cools down sectarian issues, the leaders worried about things they did for Saddam that could be used against them later in life now that the regime has changed. They continue to pass laws. Abadi and his team are pulling everyone in, doing wonderful working getting ready even as they get rid of dead wood and motivate the right people to get things done.

Tony: They are announcing the amnesty law today, right?

DC: Yes. It’s not vital for the RV, but it does help keep people calm. They are not ‘must haves’ for the RV, but helps get everyone in line and prove their maturity as a governing body. We are expecting the amnesty announcement on the 11pm news in Iraq.

Tony: Who is going to pull the trigger and how an options do they have?

DC: With all the checks that have been run at the finance ministry, security, IMF+BIS, CBI and all the rest, they agreed several days ago that it is up to Iraq, and of course some are trying to persuade them of this window or that, but they are set up to go. The CBI will do it, it will propagate through ISX and to the other banks. Then they will adjust the CBI.IQ site in Iraq and Houston. After that, Abadi and others will announce it after the fact. There are four feasible windows.

Tony: The first window was this morning, and it didn’t go.

DC: There was productive lobbying for options B, C and DC, by US and European politicians. There are two windows this weekend and one early next week. But those timelines are already agreed to and I found out about them on Wednesday. They are staying firm and that is a wonderful thing. Instead of trying to kick the windows out of the way, they are arguing for B, C or D or whatever – that is, they are arguing in that construct, which is very important.

About ISIL, we are generally hearing they are being beaten apart from a horrible bombing this week. Everyone is highly concerned about what might happen if/when they are cornered. The coalition forces are gelling and working well together. For the most part it’s work well and they are achieving their goal. There are major areas for improvement in the Iraqi Army, for sure, but going from where they were in late June until now, they are pretty amazing and people should recognize that. Smart people are working on that in a dedicated fashion. ISIL is no longer on the evening news every day.

On Iraqi television and in the mosques, they are announcing this will happen any time, so pay attention to these radio stations, television, etc. They have been doing things in the news of how ready they are for this. More and more Iraqis know that the US has been the primary holdup, and there have been articles from Deputy Ministers saying they will work around the US. Now they are having to defend why they delayed it this long, and now saying they will push this through, and then it will be water under the bridge for most.

Tony: There are public statements about this being done by Thanksgiving. Our guys said between the 20th and the 25th, because that is when they get paid in Iraq, and they want to have the true rate when they load the cards. They are not so much going around the US as aligning with terms agreed with the US.

DC: The UN is pushing everyone to get through, with some threats about getting it done this week. They are absolutely ready to get this done and believe everyone is sincere in pushing this through. The UST+IMF+BIS are still facilitating and coordinating these steps and agreeing Iraq is ready to get this thing done. The US administration have been satisfied with the Iraqi progress in wrapping up the items on Sunday; they are now prepared to support it, although they would prefer not to be in a certain window. They have let the rest of the world know they fully support it as well.

Tony: You knew this on Wednesday, and we know there was a window of four, yet this morning they stopped it.

DC: In essence, they asked Iraq NOT to choose Option A. It does make everyone nervous because the US has got in the way in the past so many times and we pray they don’t do that this time. When everyone was ready yesterday afternoon, the US said, “We fully support it, but you’d better not do Option A”. Otherwise, they are playing ball nicely.

We understand the UST is ready, the banks have been briefed, the command centers are ready, and everyone is ready to go on. Timelines and windows for non-Iraqi citizens (i.e., US citizens, etc.) are these: they still plan to have Dinarland, the people who are really paying attention, to be done by Thanksgiving. That is fast but reassuring. The general public will then start after Thanksgiving. Tony?

Tony: I have my tank around me today! We’ve talked about a lot of different plans. We were all talking about this, and I don’t want to be blamed for this, so I’m telling you all the information. We’ve talked about the process a bit. If this goes between now and Monday, we’re going to go in – TNT, dinarians, internet guys – and they will push it as much as possible before Thanksgiving. From 1. December, the currency exchange will be cut off until 1. January. So AFTER WE GO THROUGH, they will cut off exchanges during December. We don’t know because it’s the holidays, banking fraud or what, but that is what we hear the plan is, so far. This is what’s being circulated here and other there as well.

The plan includes a designated time for this get started between now and Monday (including Monday, because that is the final window option). No matter when it starts, they want to run everyone through by Thanksgiving, which is Thursday! I’ve told you that the international rate might go up, but in this scenario, that might not happen. They actually don’t want to put it on Forex until January (by preference), so they may be taking that option away from you. Your best option might be to get in and get out, take your money and run. We’ve been hearing they wanted to cut people off as of Thanksgiving or the 1st of December. Nobody can work out how they could get away with that, but if they bring US in this next week, and then get back to everyone else starting in January, hey, it could work. I don’t want anyone to think you are getting cut off. They may bring in the same plan in January.

The biggest thing we are hearing in Iraq is that by 1st December those three zeros will be dropped off their currency. This is their hurry-up-do-it-now plan, to bring us through and then cut it off until the new year. I don’t know their justification for that.

DC: The issues revolve around fraud in December, and also the advantages of a fixed rate. They had a plan for a long time that would bring this out over 30-90 days, to ease the transition. The reasoning is primarily about stability in the markets and banks, and also a little face-saving for some folks.

Tony: I hope everyone understands the process. It could be a great weekend and a great Monday and hopefully by Tuesday we’ll all be lined up at a bank somewhere. I want everyone to understand what we have been hearing, that after we exchange it may be stopped for the holidays and restart at the beginning of January.

DC: I hope this is their final plan, but I strongly urge everyone to be flexible and prepared for change. They will probably tweak this again, but we wanted to let you know.

(this transcript will be updated when we have a fuller one)

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